Trade Like The Casino Episode 2

Trade like the casino episode 2, Last episode, The result wasn’t bad at all. I made 6% but I realized that I have work to do. Here’s my observation so far.. P.s: The observations were made after these trade were taken so I haven’t made these corrections yet.

All rules will be applied in the next episode. In terms of triggers (retest), I have to confirm the trend before I take a trade.

That way the market won’t leave me hanging. A loss is: a loss, and a win: a win. You have to know the current trend, It must be followed—before you take the triggered trade. If you are not sure of the trend, leave the trade! I noticed most of my losses are from trading against the current trend. Either I go in too early or I go in after the action. It shouldn’t be.. I’ll be working on identifying the current trend first before, attending to my triggers. The 3-way (Divergence, doubles and trends [higher-lows or Lower-highs] shouldn’t be ignored. Lastly, only after a supposed higher low or lower high then you can consider the triggers.

Trade 1/10

Tuesday by 19:23, 22nd February, 2022. Took this trade, risking 1.42% to gain 2.16%. Got in at 13805 with, 13588 target in mind (short) and leaving at 13947. The struggle and conflict still seems to be coming up. However, I remind myself of: “anything can happen”. Apparently, there’s a wick and bullish divergence still in the corner—so, I don’t know if the bulls are done. Anyway, the result will let me know. I realized that my executions need a lot of work—I’ve found my actual goal for the year. Executions! I need to be better at shooting and not just aiming.

By 21:04, I lost. The Bulls are still in charge—I guess this means the divergence wasn’t lying. I’m currently down 2.5% with a 45.45% win-rate.

Execution still terrible, targets are much better. Noticed I’m more confident and not too worried with my trades. Need more work.

Trade 2/10

Today is Thursday 24th February, 2022 11:48am.. Took a trade. The Nasdaq 100 bears have been going mental. I woke to the market down a thousand points already—Got a slight pull and decided to hop in the train. Risking 0.93% to Gain 1.44%. My entry is: 13153 and I’m trying to get to 13009. The fib levels are pointing towards 12754-12207.. If there are more sellers, then—this will be a good trade. If not, well..

Ouch. Yet another loss at 15:32. The U.S market opened up bullish.. Still tiny pips away from my target then reversed. Hmm. Win-rate now: 41% I’m down 3.5% of my account now. Never thought, “I’ll lose this much”. Still about the execution: Timing (retest), Trust (gut feeling) and Target (zones). I guess I’ve been able to chase my fear of failure and losing money away. Unlike me—after several losses I become hesitant.

All in I haven’t lost the $200 I risked yet. Still a good sign though. In terms of risk management and analysis, I’m solid.. My executions are just poor and weak.

Trade 3/10

The last day of the week, is Friday, 25th February 2022. Took another trade at 9:13 am.

Haha—not funny but I took a sell. Risking 1.5% to gain 6.80%. The thing is, I don’t know if the bulls are done. The market has not been stable. Bears on the other hand keep leaving wicks around. Well, so far this is my fourth trade for the wick, Two failed trades, and I don’t know the outcome of this one yet.

Imagine, I even got hesitant because I have failed twice in a row. Then I remembered, “anything can happen”. Never thought I’ll say this, but—this exercise is tough. Well, journal let’s see how this one turns out. By 12:11pm I got stopped losing 1.58% of my account. Well, 3 trades taken; 3 losses made. Ouch! Mental. Wonder what this means for me.

The market has been up and about and it’s unsteadiness is affecting my directions. Though I need to work on somethings as well. My timing this week is definitely off. My strategy is maybe useless (haven’t just perfected it yet) in a side-ways market. Will be learning the break and retest from zones with double tops, bottoms and divergence. Because, I need to up my game.

A daring strategy but it should be great in terms of target and timing. Just need to trust it and I’m good. A good thing I took this exercise because my executions are thrash. Timing’s off, trust issues clouding my judgement. In total, I lost 4.9% this week, a 42.86% win-rate and I need to have an answer to this question: What is your trading plan? With this, I’ll know exactly what my game plan is.

Trade 4/10

Happy new month. It’s Tuesday, the 1st day in the month of March, 2022. I took a trade by 11:47am.

This trade just taught me to avoid “maybe trades” because I realized that I’ve had a plan which was cancelled but still looks functional. Then I saw my edge as well. I became stuck between following my edge and following the previous plan. Making me open two positions.

That’s very embarrassing. Anyway, I read the five truths and seven principles and just decided to trust my edge and keep learning from the losses. However, yesterday, the market bounced off nicely but the bulls have being failing to get past the 14200 zone.

Wonder why?

The Nasdaq then created a bearish divergence on the 240 at that 14200 zone which prompted me in taking this trade. It’s a sell trade. Got in at 14128, with stop-loss at 14209, and target at 13827. The Risk-reward is a 3:1 risking 0.81% to gain 3%. Unsure of what’s happening I set an alarm just in case the buyers have a come-back.

In addition, I believe the market is still testing me.

Ergo, I need to start rusting myself and my abilities more. That way, I’m not concerned of a trades outcome because I believe I’ll come on top at the end. My targets and timing is great so far but for now, I’m still working and waiting to see the outcome of this particular trade. At 14:53 I lost that one. Got stopped out. I’ll be taking the other side. That is, going long. Lost 0.82% in that one bringing my win-rate to: 43.75%..

Trade 5/10

By 15:37 Tuesday 1st March, 2022. I took another trade.

The Nasdaq market opened bullish by 15:30 making me revisit the previous plans. Got in at 14257, Stop-loss at 14150 and target at 14499—I’ll be risking 1% to gain 2.4%. However, if the divergence decides to play out, then it will help in confirming it’s strength on the 240 minute time-frame.

Who knows, might just be yet another lesson. 17:00 I got stopped out again. Losing 1% again.

Bringing my account to a total of -6.8% drawdown. Current win-rate: 41.18%.. Is that a good one? I guess not that’s more than my RR. Since it’s not in a single trade, it’s cool. Well, I guess the divergence might just play out. I’ll be waiting.

Lessons from this trade is: If it doesn’t look like your edge, It’s shouldn’t be considered. The Nasdaq is very indecisive so, I’ll be waiting for a break and retest. The trade 14 playing out nicely (divergence is a great one). However, I noticed, before a bounce, there would be series of rejection candles. That makes the zone valid and a trade can be considered.

Trade 6/10

Happy International women’s day. It’s Tuesday, 8th of March, 2022. By 19:51, I took a trade.

I decided to use a buy-limit—Since I’m currently working on retest. Note: I didn’t change my strategy I just made it more detailed and precise. That is, I decided I would have specific things I look for, I’ll try to avoid being everywhere and just specifically look for these things (divergence, doubles and trends) in particular.

It’s going to be risky considering, the retest is an aggressive way of entry. But then again, I’m trying to master these triggers. I’ve got no issue with my confluence since I created the 3-way (divergence, doubles and trends).

Today, I took a long trade—my entry is: 13405.1, Stop-loss:13290.3, and Target profte:13622.5.  Risking 1.1% to gain 2.1%. My risk management has been perfected so far. It remains these triggers (executions).

Let’s see how this one goes.

The retest has to be more precise though, so I’m working on making sure—I identify the breakout first so I can know the direction of the retest. If I go against the trend, I lose.. An observation, This style of trading has a higher win-rate in a trendy market. I’ll figure it out, I know it.

Heh guys, by 21:50, 90 pips to profit—Slapped! Good-night. Lost 1.1%.. bringing my win-rate down to: 38.89%. Man, wonder how terrible this win-rate can get. What’s the problem? I actually was 1% in profits before the reverse.. I guess going against the trend doesn’t exactly pay.

Anyway, I’m going to keep taking these trades, after the 20th trade, I find the common problem then work on it. Note: I haven’t changed my strategy yet. Still going with the same rules. Still going to consider the buys if there’s a final break. Till then, I stick with them shorts. #nq There’s a funny observation. Taking profits is kind of tricky..

Trade 7/10

Hey there, it’s 11:57am. Thursday, 10th March, 2022. Took a trade I’m, conflicted again. Here’s why: So my entry for this trade is: 13584.5 with a target at: 13841.8, and Exit at: 13488.6. In all, I’m risking 0.95% to gain 2.5%.. Great right? Now the twist, I’m still practicing my main-triggers (retest) But the bulls now seem to be struggling even after creating a double bottom, bullish divergence.

However, I won’t lie, I kind of ignored the last confluence, which is: a new Higher-high, Alright! I’m wrong for that, need to do better.

Though the bulls failed to break previous resistance zone (13800) and created more supply rather than demand. I got in either way because I felt it’s a pullback. The conflict is at identifying the difference between pullbacks and retest just realized they are indeed different. I guess I have to be more objective. Man, these test are really crazy! I just want to really get this right. Why does it seem so hard though? It shouldn’t be, right?

Anyway, I’m working to really see how these triggers work. Should the trend be respected at all cost, even if a reversal is perceived? My thought exactly! Albeit, I’ve not lost this one. I’m just curious as to the trigger to follow. I realized there’s more risk with going against the trend and a low win-rate and a higher win-rate when following the trend. I’ll try both ways, next time, I’ll have to wait for the last confluence, no matter how long that takes.

The waiting game that comes with the triggers are also something I need to work on. But, honestly, I’ve improved! I feel really good with this style of trading and the fact that there’s always a lesson after each trade. That, I love.. Now, I wait. By 15:33, I lost that one. Well, I deserved that since: I DIDN’T EXACTLY FOLLOW MY TRADING PLAN! Lost 0.95%. In conclusion, bringing my win-rate to: 36.84%.. Okay! what’s the worst that can happen with these win-rates? I’m wondering, if people get 0% for win-rates..

Lessons from this trade: Follow your trading plan, be a listener; not just an observer.. 

Trade 8/10

Damn! I think I am a stubborn trader. Noticed I don’t exactly listen to my own trading plan. That, needs to change. Anyway, stubborn is one thing (not exactly a bad thing) but not listening, that has to stop. That aside, it’s the last day of my trading week, 11th March, 2022. By 7:44am, I took a long trade on Nasdaq100. The market hasn’t exactly been steady—it keeps leaving signs that I really can’t ignore.. Maybe I need to learn that (or not).

Ignoring (setups that are not mine) and listening should be another skill I learn.

However, for this trade, My entry: 13590.9, Tp: 13833.4, and Sl: 13452.9—I would be risking 1.3% to gain 2.4%. In terms of risk management, I have learnt to not risk past 1.49%, which is great. Another lesson, not all retest are pullbacks.. It’s crazy what you learn (everyday) from the market. But another thing I need to learn is: Trade management. Closing trades and not allowing profits turn into losses. Three things now added to the previous three: Trust, Executions (entries), Target, Ignoring wrong signals no matter how I feel, Listening more to the market and my trading plan then lastly, Trade management. 

Bye for now!

At 12:26 pm, That trade hit my target (gained 2.4%). I don’t know man I feel like it’s a good thing I trusted my edge. This particular trade taught me trust. Current win-rate: 38.10%.. My observations: after my 3-way was identified, I decided to consider just buy trades and look for a better trigger. That seemed to work out just fine. In addition, I realized that divergence don’t exactly move smoothly. So, the 3-way (divergence, double and structure/trend) has to be complete. That is, for bulls: the confirmation trigger is usually a higher-low and for the bears, a lower high. Will be working with this!

Trade 9/10

Okay guys, It’s 21st of March, 2022. Last week, I couldn’t get to take any trades. Missed out on all.. Anyway, I took a buy-limit today by 2:29am and it got triggered by 3:00am. Nasdaq100 bulls haven’t exactly given us a Higher-low, however I was only going to take advantage of the next resistance—that’s to 14600. My entry is 14352, Target profit: 14592, and Stop loss: 14237. I risked 1.1% to gain 2.4%. So far so good, my risk-management has improved massively. I am more aware of what I’m risking and gaining before every trade. Unlike me, that’s growth!

Heh! it’s currently 14:30 and the US market is opened. There’s a news alert of the market opening lower and I don’t know what this means for my long trade now. Anyway, I still have an issue with taking profits. After this log, I’ll start working more on taking profits. I need to figure it out. My next 20 trades will incorporate, focusing on actually taking-profits since I’ve got an edge, risk-management plan, and trading plan. I want to see if that helps my trading performance. Since, most of losses are: the trade going my way and me waiting for target profit hits and it doesn’t do that. A situation where I could have just taken some money off the market, I allow myself to lose all. Moreover, I realized that 9/10 times, my losses are that way. Something’s wrong. Not the edge but my style of taking-profits..

In addition, I won’t be changing my SL’s. I will just be working on taking profits. That’s the only skill I need now. How to take-profits! The book, “trading in the zone”, Mark made mention of the three stages of a traders performance. The subjective, mechanical and intuitive. I need my intuitive and subjective state to start working. Furthermore, now I know what it means to, “trade like the casino”. It’s 15:00 guys. I lost this one. Like I knew—that taking-profits skill might come in handy. Anyway, I lost 1.15% and my current win-rate is: 36.36%. P.S: I will definitely get this right. Don’t really care how long that takes.

Trade 10/10.

Last trade, well, I got into the same trade. By 19:30. The bulls created support at: 14150 and I thought, “isn’t this a great time to take the trade?”.. Retesting previous support level and not breaking. Could the bulls still be in charge? 

For this trade, I’ll be going long. Risking: 1.15% to Gain: 2.61%. Entry at: 14338.3, Stop-loss at: 14222.6, and Target profits at: 14600. If the bears say, “No!”, So be it. Furthermore, I’ll be waiting to see the outcome of this one. However, this particular log isn’t exactly great. The losses are more than the wins.. Ouch! Out of 9 trades, Just one win and eight losses. 😬 That’s sad! After going through my trades, I realized my weakness is in: taking profits.. What do I do now? How can I get this right? Damn! I need to figure this out.. 

Today, Tuesday 22nd March, 2022. As a write this, it’s 13:50 and I’m still in that trade. Anyway, I decided to shift my focus. Now, all I will focus on is: making money (taking profits, paying myself).. Not disregarding my edge and risk management of course. My goal at the end of the month is to remain profitable.. Positive always no matter what! My next trades, I will be going back to my previous lot size of half standard—since I’ve succeeded in finishing this exercise. However, My major focus will be—making money. Will be back to tell you the outcome of this trade. 

Hello, it’s 15:38 and TP smashed. This one was a winner! Focused more on winning and taking profits than losing. That worked. Now I’ll do more of what works.. Keep up with my trade-logs. I really just want to say a major thank you to Late Mark Douglas for this exercise.. It really helped me face my fears and trade like a casino. At the end of it all, I have 6 wins and 14 losses. I risked $200 and lost $55.. Taking all trades and allowing the market do it’s thing. Figured out my weakness, now it’s time to work. I’ll keep y’all updated!

Finally, be sure to check out my previous episodes, if you haven’t. My growth has been great, even with the losses. Because now I can differentiate between what works and what doesn’t. I’ll be working on taking-profits (making money). Thanks for being a part of my growth!

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