What To Expect!
Who’s In The Nasdaq And What Are They Doing?
The tech-savvy Nasdaq100 had it’s fifth straight week of declines last week. It’s her longest losing streak since late 2012. Last week, I made no predictions. My plan was, “Start from the Monthly since we’ll be in May (by the way, Happy new month) wait for that new candle to pop and see how it opened. Then head over to the weekly. On the weekly, we are currently bearish with the market below previous Lower-lows. But I mean, Anything is possible (Plus we’re news packed for this week?). Furthermore, I’ll be waiting to see if we open up bullish. If we do, then you know—Head over to the daily for confirmations. I feel like for the Nasdaq100 bulls to come in, the 12800 (check this link to see them mark-ups) zone needs to become support. If that zone breaks, then we’ll be really going for that funeral in Nasdaq100. I mean there’s a lower high created already so damn I see a clean 12k if there’s a break. Anyway, the 4-hour will be for rejections as usual, then the 15 minutes—my entry time-frame. Let me see what Monday holds”.. Well, this week, the market opened bearish and stayed bearish.. I remember the question for last week was about the feds. I asked, “dovish or hawkish?” Which are we getting. Here’s a summary: Monday was calm with mix of both the bulls and bears. Although, the bears stayed in control of the market till the very end. For Monday, we got the ISM Manufacturing—which turned out negative with a 55.4% reading. However, because the week was news packed, the reaction gotten was really neanderthal (if human). Tuesday, that was the JOLTS news release. There was a positive outcome with a 11.549m reading. The Nas100 on Tuesday, opened real mixed with a touch of bulls trying to fight their way through. This mixed vibe took it-self to Wednesday. The day we all dreaded. Wednesday was packed. We got ADP, Crude Oil Inventories, ISM, and the FOMC.. A mixed nasdaq100 went crazy when the Fed Chair Powell said, “The economy is strong”.. The Nasdaq100 soared 2% causing an uproar with investors even praising the man, saying , “Daddy Powell we love you”. Spoke too soon! Because Thursday was balance dat. The people who praised the feds, started curing them out. Lol! Naah Thursday was too funny. The market fell all the way to 0% on the minutes RSI. The bears raided and didn’t stop. I kid you not, that’s the first time I’ve seen the Nasdaq100 fall without a single retest. Yup! the market didn’t come back. That 13k was too string for her. The Initial Jobless Claim for Thursdays wasn’t a bad one but the outcome was terrible. Then came Friday. NFP! Haha! This week though. Anyway, we got two major news for Friday. The Non-farm payroll and the Unemployment rate. The NFP turned out positive whereas, the Unemployment rate turned out negative causing a drastic decline to 12512 the after an uproar back to 13k and the back n’ forth continued till the market closed. No-one can tell now what direction the lady would take. My plan for this week, Hmm—I mean since all time-frames are bearish, I’ll still be looking for sells. Till, a BOS. Now the News..
Nasdaq100 High Impact News For 9th-13th Of May, 2022
Monday and Friday are free of Major news. However, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, we’re trapped. Tuesday May 10th, 2022. By 17:00 GMT—The EIA short-term energy outlook will be taking place. The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) provides the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) near-term perspective on energy markets. Each month, the STEO provides forecasts through the end of the next calendar year for consumption, supply, trade, and prices across major fuel types. In addition, the STEO provides in-depth market analysis for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas markets. Although its emphasis is on U.S. energy markets, the STEO also includes forecasts for certain international liquid fuels market.
Wednesday 11th May, 2022 by 13:30 GMT, We’ve got the Core Cpi. This measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Same day; Different time. By 15:30 GMT, It’s the Crude Oil Inventories. This is the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Finally, Thursday 12th May, 2022 by 13:30, we’ve got the Initial Jobless Claims (measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD) and The PPI (The Producer Price Index measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD). This week, be sure to have fun and stick to those rules. Have a profitable week!