What To Expect!
Who’s In The Nasdaq And What Are They Doing?
My plan for this week is: Start from the Monthly since we’ll be in May (by the way, Happy new month) wait for that new candle to pop and see how it opened. Then head over to the weekly. On the weekly, we are currently bearish with the market below previous Lower-lows. But I mean, Anything is possible (Plus we’re news packed for this week?). Furthermore, I’ll be waiting to see if we open up bullish. If we do, then you know—Head over to the daily for confirmations. I feel like for the Nasdaq100 bulls to come in, the 12800 (check this link to see them mark-ups) zone needs to become support. If that zone breaks, then we’ll be really going for that funeral in Nasdaq100. I mean there’s a lower high created already so damn I see a clean 12k if there’s a break. Anyway, the 4-hour will be for rejections as usual, then the 15 minutes—my entry time-frame. Let me see what Monday holds.
The month of April, the tech-heavy Nasdaq100 logged its largest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Last week, I said—“What’s my plan? Same old. Weekly and Daily: Directions. I mean since we’re really bearish now, I might as well keeping looking for sells. As long as, we don’t pass the previous Lower-high at: 13700 (4-hour lower-high) I’m selling. So, I’ll be looking for new highs on the 4-hour. Then, I’ll be going to the 15 to look for entries. Let’s see how that goes”.. This week, Bleh🤦♀️. That plan went well only on Friday (The sell-off accelerated on Friday followed a disappointing earnings and guidance from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) that sent the e-commerce giant’s shares down 14%). The Nasdaq100 this week was insane especially on Wednesday and Friday. Monday started it.
Honestly, The Monday’s market was really a come back proudly brought to you by the bulls. The market for last week, dropped to 12806 but—on Monday, we got the bulls fighting tooth-and-nail to come back in, Which was crazy. They made it look mixed. I remember just going with my sells till I got stopped out. Anyway, that really set the mood for everything.
However, on Tuesday, the bears took the market down. Smooth-sailing if you ask me. On the 240, that was a lower high so it wasn’t surprising: the bearish continuation we got. By the way, I made some humble pips 🥴.
Wednesday😂. Luna-Wednesday.. A day for madness. Nasdaq100 on Wednesday was the day I literally felt my emotions flood in. The market was so mixed that you could take a sell and buy at the same time and still be in loss. 😂Honestly, no jokes. It was that stupid. By the way, this lady—stayed away. Ain’t losing my mind for no market.
Hmm.. Thursday, the bulls took the baton and we got a 13400 hit which they failed at New-York close because it wasn’t long before the bears started leaving signs again. Finally, Friday was mixed at first but, the Nasdaq got some liquidity pumped into her after the US market opening. That was a summary of how last week in Nasdaq100 went down. This week, is a actually a new month and I feel like it will not be exempted from madness. Here’s what to expect: The fed guys reserve is almost ready. from the news below, That would take place on Wednesday. Also, The labor market. Another key part of the Fed guys mandate and Friday’s NFP is expected to show that jobs growth remained robust in April. Did it though? I guess we’ll know.. What’s your pick, Dovish or Hawkish?
Nasdaq100 High Impact News For 2nd-6th Of May, 2022
The gist. Usually, Mondays are news free but I guess the month of May is coming with a different vibe. Monday, May 2, 2022 by 15:00—We’ve got the ISM Manufacturing Index. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.
The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Secondly, Tuesday May 3, 2022 at exactly 15:00 GMT—is the: JOLTS. This is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses’ employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations.
JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is “open” only if it meets all three of the following conditions:
1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position.
2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time.
3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
On Wednesday May 4, 2022 by 13:15 GMT—The ADP National Employment will take place. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Same day by 15:00 GMT will be having A repeat of Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index news while, by 15:30 is the Crude Oil Inventories. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Listen, Wednesday is packed. So heads up on that day because by 19:00 GMT, the feds take over. First is the FOMC. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes. A more dovish (bearish/slow economical growth) than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a more hawkish (bullish/rising inflation) than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Same day; same time is the Vote. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD. Finally on Wednesday, by 19:30 GMT. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference..
Thirdly, Thursday May 5, 2022 at 13:30 GMT is the Initial Jobless Claims. The Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Lastly, By Friday May 6, 2022—13:30. The rates of unemployment will be released. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Same time is the Nasdaq100’s very own “NFP”. The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. According to investing, “Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 380,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.5%. The jobs report comes on the heels of data last Thursday showing that the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, but the decline was largely driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation. Domestic demand remained robust, allaying fears of a recession. But the outlook for the economy continues to be clouded by concerns over the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, rising bond yields, new coronavirus lockdowns in China that could stymie improvements in global supply chains, and more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Fed“.
In conclusion, after all this I don’t know if I should tell you to stay away this week. But you know what? Just be really careful. Look left, right, and left again before you cross roads. Have a beautiful month and successful week.
All economic data are credited to investing.com